Optimize adaptive extrapolation defaults from real-world test data

- Update defaults from test-driven optimization:
  BufferTime=200ms, DiscardTime=30ms, Sensitivity=3.0,
  DeadZone=0.95, MinSpeed=0.0, Damping=5.0
- Add ShotFired column to CSV recording for contamination analysis
- Rewrite Python optimizer with 6-parameter search (sensitivity,
  dead zone, min speed, damping, buffer time, discard time)
- Fix velocity weighting order bug in Python simulation
- Add dead zone, min speed threshold, and damping to Python sim
- Add shot contamination analysis (analyze_shots.py) to measure
  exact IMU perturbation duration per shot
- Support multi-file optimization with mean/worst_case strategies
- Add jitter and overshoot scoring metrics

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

Unreal/Plugins/PS_Ballistics/Source/EasyBallistics/Private/EBBarrel.cpp

@@ -206,7 +206,7 @@ void UEBBarrel::TickComponent(float DeltaTime, ELevelTick TickType, FActorCompon
 			if (CSVFileHandle)
 			{
 				bCSVFileOpen = true;
-				FString Header = TEXT("Timestamp,RealPosX,RealPosY,RealPosZ,RealAimX,RealAimY,RealAimZ,PredPosX,PredPosY,PredPosZ,PredAimX,PredAimY,PredAimZ,SafeCount,BufferCount,ExtrapolationTime\n");
+				FString Header = TEXT("Timestamp,RealPosX,RealPosY,RealPosZ,RealAimX,RealAimY,RealAimZ,PredPosX,PredPosY,PredPosZ,PredAimX,PredAimY,PredAimZ,SafeCount,BufferCount,ExtrapolationTime,ShotFired\n");
 				auto HeaderUtf8 = StringCast<ANSICHAR>(*Header);
 				CSVFileHandle->Write((const uint8*)HeaderUtf8.Get(), HeaderUtf8.Length());
 
@@ -231,15 +231,17 @@ void UEBBarrel::TickComponent(float DeltaTime, ELevelTick TickType, FActorCompon
 			}
 			double ExtrapTime = (SafeN > 0) ? (GetWorld()->GetTimeSeconds() - TransformHistory[SafeN - 1].Timestamp) : 0.0;
 
-			FString Line = FString::Printf(TEXT("%.6f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.6f,%.6f,%.6f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.6f,%.6f,%.6f,%d,%d,%.6f\n"),
+			FString Line = FString::Printf(TEXT("%.6f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.6f,%.6f,%.6f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.6f,%.6f,%.6f,%d,%d,%.6f,%d\n"),
 				GetWorld()->GetTimeSeconds(),
 				RealPos.X, RealPos.Y, RealPos.Z,
 				RealAim.X, RealAim.Y, RealAim.Z,
 				Location.X, Location.Y, Location.Z,
 				Aim.X, Aim.Y, Aim.Z,
-				SafeN, TransformHistory.Num(), ExtrapTime);
+				SafeN, TransformHistory.Num(), ExtrapTime,
+				bShotFiredThisFrame ? 1 : 0);
 			auto LineUtf8 = StringCast<ANSICHAR>(*Line);
 			CSVFileHandle->Write((const uint8*)LineUtf8.Get(), LineUtf8.Length());
+			bShotFiredThisFrame = false;
 		}
 	}
 	else if (bCSVFileOpen)
@@ -605,6 +607,8 @@ void UEBBarrel::SpawnBullet(AActor* Owner, FVector InLocation, FVector InAim, in
 			}
 		}
 
+		bShotFiredThisFrame = true;
+
 		if (ReplicateShotFiredEvents) {
 			ShotFiredMulticast();
 		}

Unreal/Plugins/PS_Ballistics/Source/EasyBallistics/Public/EBBarrel.h

@@ -116,6 +116,7 @@ public:
 	bool bCSVFileOpen = false;
 	FString CSVFilePath;
 	IFileHandle* CSVFileHandle = nullptr;
+	bool bShotFiredThisFrame = false;
 
 	// Debug HUD state (written by const prediction functions, read by TickComponent)
 	mutable float DbgPosRatio = 0.0f;
@@ -147,10 +148,10 @@ public:
 		EAntiRecoilMode AntiRecoilMode = EAntiRecoilMode::ARM_AdaptiveExtrapolation;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AntiRecoil", meta = (ToolTip = "Total time window (ms) of tracker history to keep. Determines how far back in time samples are stored. Must be greater than DiscardTime. Example: 200ms at 60fps stores ~12 samples.", ClampMin = "5"))
-		float AntiRecoilBufferTimeMs = 300.0f;
+		float AntiRecoilBufferTimeMs = 200.0f;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AntiRecoil", meta = (ToolTip = "Time window (ms) of most recent samples to exclude as potentially contaminated by IMU recoil shock. The prediction algorithms only use samples older than this. Increase if the shock lasts longer. Safe window = BufferTime - DiscardTime.", ClampMin = "0.0"))
-		float AntiRecoilDiscardTimeMs = 40.0f;
+		float AntiRecoilDiscardTimeMs = 30.0f;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AntiRecoil", meta = (ToolTip = "Controls how the weight curve grows across safe samples in regression modes. 1.0 = linear growth, >1.0 = recent samples weighted much more heavily (convex curve), <1.0 = more uniform weighting (concave curve), 0.0 = all samples weighted equally. Formula: weight = pow(sampleIndex+1, exponent).", EditCondition = "AntiRecoilMode == EAntiRecoilMode::ARM_WeightedRegression || AntiRecoilMode == EAntiRecoilMode::ARM_WeightedLinearRegression", ClampMin = "0.0", ClampMax = "5.0"))
 		float RegressionWeightExponent = 2.0f;
@@ -162,16 +163,16 @@ public:
 		float KalmanMeasurementNoise = 0.01f;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AntiRecoil", meta = (ToolTip = "Power curve exponent for deceleration detection. Controls how aggressively slowing down reduces extrapolation. confidence = (remappedRatio)^sensitivity. 1.0 = linear (gentle). 2.0 = quadratic (aggressive). 0.5 = square root (very gentle). During steady movement, ratio is ~1 so confidence is always 1 regardless of this value.", EditCondition = "AntiRecoilMode == EAntiRecoilMode::ARM_AdaptiveExtrapolation", ClampMin = "0.1", ClampMax = "5.0"))
-		float AdaptiveSensitivity = 1.5f;
+		float AdaptiveSensitivity = 3.0f;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AntiRecoil", meta = (ToolTip = "Dead zone for deceleration detection. Speed ratios (recent/avg) above this value are treated as 1.0 (no correction). Only ratios below trigger extrapolation reduction. Higher = more tolerant to natural speed fluctuations (less false positives). Lower = more sensitive to deceleration. 0.8 = ignore normal jitter, only react to real braking.", EditCondition = "AntiRecoilMode == EAntiRecoilMode::ARM_AdaptiveExtrapolation", ClampMin = "0.0", ClampMax = "0.95"))
-		float AdaptiveDeadZone = 0.8f;
+		float AdaptiveDeadZone = 0.95f;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AntiRecoil", meta = (ToolTip = "Minimum average speed (cm/s) required for deceleration detection. Below this threshold, speed ratios are unreliable due to noise, so confidence stays at 1.0 (full extrapolation). Prevents false deceleration detection during slow/small movements. 0 = disabled.", EditCondition = "AntiRecoilMode == EAntiRecoilMode::ARM_AdaptiveExtrapolation", ClampMin = "0.0", ClampMax = "200.0"))
-		float AdaptiveMinSpeed = 30.0f;
+		float AdaptiveMinSpeed = 0.0f;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AntiRecoil", meta = (ToolTip = "Velocity damping during extrapolation. 0 = disabled (default). Higher values cause extrapolated velocity to decay exponentially toward zero over the discard window. Reduces overshoot on fast draw-aim-fire sequences where the user stops moving before firing. Applies to all prediction modes except Buffer. Typical range: 5-15.", ClampMin = "0.0", ClampMax = "50.0"))
-		float ExtrapolationDamping = 8.0f;
+		float ExtrapolationDamping = 5.0f;
 
 	UPROPERTY(BlueprintReadWrite, EditAnywhere, Category = "AimStabilization", meta = (ToolTip = "Angular dead zone in degrees. If the aim direction changes by less than this angle since the last stable aim, the change is ignored (aim stays locked). Eliminates micro-jitter from VR tracker vibrations. 0 = disabled. Typical: 0.1 to 0.5 degrees.", ClampMin = "0.0", ClampMax = "5.0"))
 		float AimDeadZoneDegrees = 0.0f;